The next generation can end extreme poverty

I read Factfulness and was quite inspired to learn that extreme poverty can be eliminated by 2100. This, of course, means allowing countries with extreme poverty (about 800 million people now) to develop. This is not a natural consequence destined to happen, but must be invested in deliberately. There are some very interesting facts around development:

1. Per-capita CO2 emissions are much higher in the US, Canada, and other countries with higher income levels. I hear a lot about how China and India are causing substantial pollution, but per-capita they are far under! India emits 1/10th the CO2 per person as the US! China is almost a third. The countries that have extreme poverty do not contribute as much. What is preventing the US and Canada in being leaders in reducing (via capture or whatever other means) CO2 emissions? It seems it could be a good economic opportunity for future generations.

2. In places where people are escaping extreme poverty, they store their excess money in bricks and build their houses incrementally. It is an interesting marker of the financial infrastructure to look at how long it takes to finish a wall or room.

3. By 2040 the economic center will have substantially shifted towards APAC, and 2060 Africa will be entering the global market in force. I do not think the west will simply stand by, though. I am excited to see how this unfolds and I’m incredibly excited to see economic development in APAC.

There is a lot to this data I need to understand better, but this was really inspiring to read. Poverty of all forms is slowly getting better, either through reduced severity or fewer people experiencing poverty. The real value of human potential isn’t in manual labor that can be automated away, but by our thinking. At the museum I went to, there was a single machine built in 1906 that could do the work of 30 fish butchers and prepare 60 fish per minute. It is such a critical skill today to be adaptable in our thoughts and learning, because that is what makes humans so special. If I am displaced from my job, I believe I have the skills to quickly adapt and learn a new craft. Automating too fast will make this more difficult to make the leap. Everything in balance.

We don't know where the Spanish Flu started, or why Wikipedia doesn't agree

My wife started reading a new book, which prompted a conversation this morning about the Spanish Flu. At some point, we shifted and started talking about the origins of the flu. There are a few interesting facts:

1. The Spanish Flu is called the Spanish Flu because the other countries in the time period (1918ish) had media censorship, while Spain had a free press. America still doesn’t have a truly free press, but it’s a lot harder to stifle these facts today. Thanks TikTok reporters.

2. Virologists don’t fully agree on where the flu started. The two leading theories are it started in a major hospital in Étaples, France. There is another theory that it started in China, and brought into Europe via America where it mutated. It’s interesting to me that we still cannot conclusively figure where epidemics start.

3. Only 3-5% of the population was killed by this flu, which isn’t really a threat to humanity’s continuing survival. The lower bound is likely 50 million people died from this flu, which is lower than the total number people infected HIV. This is really jarring to me, where HIV feels much bigger than an epidemic a hundred years ago that afflicted a sizable percentage of the population.

What is most interesting is that if you look at the Japanese wikipedia article for Spanish Flu and compare to English it cites very different origins:

流行の経緯としては、第1波は1918年3月に米国デトロイトやサウスカロライナ州付近などで最初の流行があり[1]、米軍のヨーロッパ進軍と共に大西洋を渡り、5〜6月にヨーロッパで流行した。

Translated to English:

As for the history of the epidemic, the first wave had its start in Detroit, U.S.A. and South Carolina in March 1918, it then crossed the Atlantic Ocean with the U.S. forces in to Europe and reached Europe in May and June.

I don’t understand the discrepancy, nor can I find any reputable sources that explain it. While Detroit was hit quite hard by the Spanish flu, they weren’t in the beginning of it. This is fascinating to me that there is a discrepancy here.